Executive Summary

Halfway through the fourth quarter of 2026, United States government data shows domestic energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are on pace to decrease 2 percent – roughly 60 to 70 million metric tons – relative to 2025 levels, despite federal policy actions to increase fossil fuel use. This overall decrease is driven primarily by lower coal consumption – coal use across all sectors is down roughly 10 percent, led by large declines in the power sector and manufacturing sector. The national emissions decline is also attributable to lower gasoline and diesel consumption with emissions across the buildings and transportation sectors also set to decline. These forecasts are based on the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration data, and they match up against U.S. Energy Policy Simulator modeling, which projects energy-only CO2 emissions will drop nearly 9 percent by 2035 and more than 15 percent by 2040, both relative to 2025 levels.