Executive Summary

This Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) analysis projects impacts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), as well as energy policy decisions of the 119^th Congress and Trump Administration since January 2025, for each of the 48 contiguous U.S. states.

Energy prices continue rising, worsening the affordability crisis facing Americans. The EPS modeling shows federal policy decisions will increase energy costs, slow economic growth, and increase air pollution and healthcare costs:

• Households will pay an additional $920 billion for energy between 2026-2040 – about $6,500 cumulatively per household across that period and $640 per household in 2035.
• Cutting policies that drive transportation sector innovation and efficiency will inflate gasoline prices 54 cents per gallon in 2035 and 93 cents per gallon in 2040, atop upward pressure from the Iran war.
• OBBBA and federal cuts to domestic manufacturing and innovation will cost 390,000 jobs per year on average, totaling 6.2 million job-years lost to state economies.
• Slowing down electrification and domestic energy manufacturing will lower GDP, spilling into other economic sectors, costing state economies $1.3 trillion in cumulative GDP losses.
• Worsening local air pollution will cause 37,000 additional premature deaths and raise healthcare costs by $72 billion, contributing to rising household costs alongside rising energy prices and goods inflation.
• All federal energy policy decisions and climate repeals will generate 9.3 billion tons of CO2e emissions, roughly 580 million tons per year.

Our analysis focuses on seven key sets of policy changes:

• Passage of the OBBBA
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) reconsideration and repeal of Clean Air Act (CAA) §111 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Standards, Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, and Clean Water Act Effluent Limitations Guidelines for electric power plants
• U.S. EPA’s repeal of the Endangerment Finding and federal tailpipe emissions standards
• Passage of CAA §177 Congressional Review Act resolutions overturning approvals for state-level tailpipe emissions standards
• Administration actions to limit renewable energy development, especially onshore and offshore wind plants, including limitations on issuance of new permits
• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) cancellations of hydrogen hub funding and easing of 45V tax-credit qualification for natural gas-based hydrogen
• U.S. EPA’s cancellation of the $7-billion Solar for All grant program

This analysis focused on energy policies. Impacts to energy prices from the Iran war are captured in the model’s energy price forecasts. For example, the Strait of Hormuz blockade has raised gasoline prices, so policies that slow new electric vehicle (EV) sales will burden consumers with bigger gasoline bills than if the war had not taken place. We have not explicitly modeled specific tariffs; tariff and inflationary pressure on technology prices and consumer costs up to the start year are incorporated where our source data factors in those impacts. Accordingly, the assessment of net change in costs, particularly on households, is conservative.

State-level policy solutions

State leaders have options to help insulate their constituents from these impacts in meaningful ways: Energy Innovation’s state policy blueprint[2] lays out five no-regrets actions state and local governments can take until federal policies change. While these actions can’t replace the pollution reductions and total affordability measures provided by strong federal policy, they can limit price increases, improve health, and add new capacity to the grid.

• Help hundreds of gigawatts of wind and solar projects[3] qualify for expiring tax credits under safe harbor rules by ensuring they are placed into service by the end of 2030 and pushing utilities to contract with and connect these resources quickly where they would save consumers money.
• Remove barriers to additional clean energy deployment[4] by providing permitting certainty, improving the use of existing grid infrastructure, reducing soft costs, and cutting red tape for businesses and households to install clean energy.
• Sustain momentum for electric transportation[5] through a mix of policies that will bolster the growing market for EVs and charging infrastructure.
• Double down on efficiency and electrification for buildings and factories[6] by supporting technologies that provide efficient heat and cooling; adopting modern energy codes and standards; offering incentives and enable financing to level the playing field for energy saving measures.
• Stimulate investment in new clean industries,[7] such as modern, efficient heating equipment and industrial parks designed to reduce the infrastructure costs and investment risks of cleaner manufacturing.
• RMI’s Electricity Affordability Toolkit includes over two dozen actions states can take to address rising electricity costs and RMI’s State Permitting Power Tool identifies permitting-related barriers and associated reforms to clean energy deployment and infrastructure projects.

[1] Climate Power. “SnapShot: Trump’s Energy Crisis Spikes Utility Bills By 16%,” June 2026, Climate Power, https://climatepower.us/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/June-2026-Energy-Crisis-Snapshot.pdf.

[2] Mike O’Boyle, Sara Baldwin, Chris Busch, Michelle Solomon, Brendan Pierpont, Sonali Deshpande, Nik Sawe, and Dan Esposito, “Energy Leadership In A Time Of Need: A Blueprint For States,” Energy Innovation, August 2025, https://energyinnovation.org/report/energy-leadership-in-a-time-of-need-a-blueprint-for-states/.

[3] Mike O’Boyle, Michelle Solomon and Brendan Pierpont, “Energy Leadership In A Time Of Need: Accelerating Near-Term Solar And Wind Procurement,” Energy Innovation, August 2025, https://energyinnovation.org/report/energy-leadership-in-a-time-of-need-accelerate-near-term-solar-and-wind-procurement/.

[4] Mike O’Boyle, Brendan Pierpont and Michelle Solomon, “Energy Leadership In A Time Of Need: Remove Barriers To Clean Energy,” Energy Innovation, August 2025, https://energyinnovation.org/report/energy-leadership-in-a-time-of-need-remove-barriers-to-clean-energy/.

[5] Sara Baldwin and Chris Busch, “Energy Leadership In A Time Of Need: Sustain Momentum For Electric Transportation,” Energy Innovation, August 2025, https://energyinnovation.org/report/energy-leadership-in-a-time-of-need-sustain-momentum-for-electric-transportation/.

[6] Sara Baldwin, Nik Sawe and Sonali Deshpande, “Energy Leadership In A Time Of Need: Double Down On Efficiency And Electrification For Buildings And Industry,” Energy Innovation, August 2025, https://energyinnovation.org/report/energy-leadership-in-a-time-of-need-double-down-on-efficiency-and-electrification-for-buildings-and-industry/.

[7] Sonali Deshpande, Nik Sawe, and Dan Esposito, “Energy Leadership In A Time Of Need: Stimulate Investment In New Clean Industries,” Energy Innovation, August 2025, https://energyinnovation.org/report/energy-leadership-in-a-time-of-need-stimulate-investment-in-new-clean-industries/.