Executive Summary

This Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) analysis projects Oregon impacts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) as well as energy policy decisions of the 119^th Congress and Trump Administration since January 2025.

Energy prices continue rising, worsening the affordability crisis facing the state’s residents. The EPS modeling shows federal policy decisions will increase energy costs, slow economic growth, and increase air pollution and healthcare costs:

• Oregon households will pay an additional $18 billion for energy – an average of $840 per household in 2035 and $1,200 in 2040.
• Cutting policies that drive transportation sector innovation and efficiency will inflate gasoline prices in Oregon 13 percent in 2035 and 23 percent in 2040, atop upward pressure from the Iran war.
• OBBBA and federal cuts to domestic manufacturing and innovation will cost Oregon’s economy 7,500 jobs per year on average over the next decade.
• Slowing down electrification and domestic energy manufacturing will lower GDP, spilling into other economic sectors. Oregon’s economy will lose $1.6 billion in GDP in 2030, with annual losses peaking at $2.2 billion by 2032.
• Worsening local air pollution will raise healthcare costs in Oregon by $280 million, with annual increases of $26 million in 2035 and $32 million in 2040, contributing to rising household costs alongside rising energy prices and goods inflation.

Our analysis focuses on seven key sets of policy changes:

• Passage of the OBBBA
• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) reconsideration and repeal of Clean Air Act (CAA) §111 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Standards, Mercury and Air Toxics Standards, and Clean Water Act Effluent Limitations Guidelines for electric power plants
• U.S. EPA’s repeal of the Endangerment Finding and federal tailpipe emissions standards
• Passage of CAA §177 Congressional Review Act resolutions overturning approvals for state-level tailpipe emissions standards
• Administration actions to limit renewable energy development, especially onshore and offshore wind plants, including limitations on issuance of new permits
• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) cancellations of hydrogen hub funding and easing of 45V tax-credit qualification for natural gas-based hydrogen
• U.S. EPA’s cancellation of the $7-billion Solar for All grant program

This analysis focused on energy policies. Impacts to energy prices from the Iran war are captured in the model’s energy price forecasts. For example, the Strait of Hormuz blockade has raised gasoline prices, so policies that slow new electric vehicle (EV) sales will burden consumers with bigger gasoline bills than if the war had not taken place. We have not explicitly modeled specific tariffs; tariff and inflationary pressure on technology prices and consumer costs up to the start year are incorporated where our source data factors in those impacts. Accordingly, the assessment of net change in costs, particularly on households, is conservative.

State-level policy solutions

Oregon’s state leaders have options to help insulate their constituents from these impacts in meaningful ways: Energy Innovation’s state policy blueprint lays out five no-regrets actions state and local governments can take until federal policies change. While these actions can’t replace the pollution reductions and total affordability measures provided by strong federal policy, they can limit price increases, improve health, and add new capacity to the grid.

• Help hundreds of gigawatts of wind and solar projects qualify for expiring tax credits under safe harbor rules by ensuring they are placed into service by the end of 2030 and pushing utilities to contract with and connect these resources quickly where they would save consumers money.
• Remove barriers to additional clean energy deployment by providing permitting certainty, improving the use of existing grid infrastructure, reducing soft costs, and cutting red tape for businesses and households to install clean energy.
• Sustain momentum for electric transportation through a mix of policies that will bolster the growing market for EVs and charging infrastructure.
• Double down on efficiency and electrification for buildings and factories by supporting technologies that provide efficient heat and cooling; adopting modern energy codes and standards; offering incentives and enable financing to level the playing field for energy saving measures.
• Stimulate investment in new clean industries, such as modern, efficient heating equipment and industrial parks designed to reduce the infrastructure costs and investment risks of cleaner manufacturing.
• RMI’s Electricity Affordability Toolkit includes over two dozen actions states can take to address rising electricity costs and RMI’s State Permitting Power Tool identifies permitting-related barriers and associated reforms to clean energy deployment and infrastructure projects.