Energy Innovation has modeled the energy and climate provisions of the House’s reconciliation bill, including all Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits as well as expanded oil and gas production. The proposal would harm the U.S. economy significantly with damages stemming from higher energy prices, lost jobs, and lower GDP:
- Between 2026 and 2034 (the reconciliation window), national GDP decreases by nearly $1.1 trillion, cumulatively
- Wholesale power prices increase roughly 50 percent by 2035 from the loss of new generation capacity
- Cumulative annual consumer energy costs increase more than $16 billion in 2030 and more than $33 billion by 2035
- Jobs fall by more than 830,000 in 2030 and nearly 720,000 in 2035
Additionally, wind, solar, and storage growth falls substantially at a time when the grid needs more power due to growing electricity demand.
