Estimating U.S. Energy Demand And Emissions Impacts Of COVID-19 With The Energy Policy Simulator

COVID-19 has had devastating global public health and economic effects, and the associated climate implications in America’s energy system are only starting to become clear. Future implications of COVID-19 on U.S. energy demand and emissions will hinge on national and regional responses, as well as the evolving economic outlook.

This research note compares Energy Policy Simulator outputs across three different GDP outlooks and finds that short-term emissions are dependent on the severity of COVID-19 impacts, with 2020 U.S. emissions reductions ranging from 7 to 11 percent relative to 2019. Emissions will likely approach pre-COVID-19 levels by 2025, and COVID-19 is not likely to have a material impact on annual emissions in 2030 or cumulative emissions through 2050.