New modeling using the Energy Policy Simulator forecasts electric vehicle sales will make up 65 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2050, and could reach up to 75 percent by 2050 in the event of high oil prices or strong technology cost declines. The modeling includes expected market share expansion and penetration levels, the effects of internal factors like battery prices, external factors like oil prices and government policy support, and related national electricity demand.
Policy & Politics
How can Mexico achieve its climate targets and work toward the Paris Agreement goals? This working paper addresses this question by identifying and evaluating the key climate and energy policy options available to Mexico to support the implementation of its INDC. The analysis shows that Mexico can meet its unconditional and conditional targets while at the same time saving money and lives.
This report provides insight into which climate and energy policies can most cost-effectively drive down China’s emissions. The report’s recommendations are based on results from the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), which assesses the combined effects of 35 climate, energy, and environmental policies on a variety of metrics.
This paper synthesizes the reasons for California’s successful climate policy. It considers the relative strengths and weaknesses of different types of policy, concluding that performance standards have led in reducing statewide emissions. Market failures beyond the lack of a price on carbon mean the best policy approach combines the three types of policy: performance standards, economic signals, and research and development (R&D).
The climate problem is enormous: It threatens much of modern civilization, and its principal source, in burning hydrocarbons, is embedded in most of the modern economy. But a handful of insights, grounded in careful math, can clarify the situation, and point out a straightforward path to a reasonable climate future. This paper cuts through the clutter, and points to a reasonable, cost-effective solution to climate change, with clear steps to get there.
This year’s annual report on Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) highlights these state-level targets are continuing to drive the majority (60 percent) of new renewable energy generation in the U.S. Compliance with these targets remains high (95 percent), while cost premiums in 2014 only resulted in an average 1.3 percent increase in customer bills.
This policy toolbox is designed to improve distributed solar PV access for low-income customers. It identifies four principle barriers to low-income participation—cost, physical barriers, housing conditions, and market forces—and identifies dozens of solutions that address these barriers. Examples include on-bill financing, community/shared solar, green banks, and federal best practice networks. The report includes case studies from California, New York, Colorado, D.C., and Massachusetts, which have put these principles and recommendations into successful action.
This factsheet outlines the financial options for meeting the COP21 agreement to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or below, finding that global investment in new renewable electric power generation will need to reach $12.1 trillion in the next 25 years. Assuming “business-as-usual” will bring in $6.9 trillion in renewables investment, this leaves a “gap” of $5.2 trillion that must be additionally invested to reach the 2 degree target.
This report retrospectively examines the costs, benefits, and other impacts of all state renewable portfolio standards (RPS). The study finds that meeting RPS compliance reduces greenhouse gas emissions, air pollutant emissions (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter), and water use. These reductions equate to $7.4 billion in benefits. Other economic impacts include jobs growth and price reductions for wholesale electricity and natural gas.
This white paper recommends that modeling done by transmission planners and other stakeholders meet four minimum standards to “conduct effective modeling of the CPP”: (1) stakeholder engagement and transparency, (2) study methodology and interactions between studyies, (3) study inputs, sensitivities, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) tools and techniques. The standards will help avoid studies that produce unfounded reliability and cost findings.