Energy Modeling: Policy Impact Studies

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The Future Of Electric Vehicles In The U.S. To 2050

New modeling using the Energy Policy Simulator forecasts electric vehicle sales will make up 65 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2050, and could reach up to 75 percent by 2050 in the event of high oil prices or strong technology cost declines. The modeling includes expected market share expansion and penetration levels, the effects of internal factors like battery prices, external factors like oil prices and government policy support, and related national electricity demand.

Court Ruling Threatens More Heat-Trapping Hydrofluorocarbons

A U.S. Court of Appeals’ decision to vacate EPA’s rule to reduce hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) could cost at least 3.6 billion metric tons of avoided emissions through 2050 and limits U.S. options to fully implement the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which would reduce cumulative U.S. emissions by 9.5 billion metric tons. This research note report analyzes potential impacts of the court decision, as well as potential alternatives for the U.S. to fully implement the Kigali Amendment.

Achieving Mexico’s Climate Goals: An Eight-Point Action Plan

How can Mexico achieve its climate targets and work toward the Paris Agreement goals? This working paper addresses this question by identifying and evaluating the key climate and energy policy options available to Mexico to support the implementation of its INDC. The analysis shows that Mexico can meet its unconditional and conditional targets while at the same time saving money and lives.

Climate and Energy Policy Solutions for China: Executive Summary

This report provides insight into which climate and energy policies can most cost-effectively drive down China’s emissions. The report’s recommendations are based on results from the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), which assesses the combined effects of 35 climate, energy, and environmental policies on a variety of metrics.

Climate Policy for the Real World

This paper synthesizes the reasons for California’s successful climate policy. It considers the relative strengths and weaknesses of different types of policy, concluding that performance standards have led in reducing statewide emissions. Market failures beyond the lack of a price on carbon mean the best policy approach combines the three types of policy: performance standards, economic signals, and research and development (R&D).

Utility Regulatory and Business Model Reforms for Addressing the Financial Impacts of Distributed Solar on Utilities

This study highlights some of the challenges and opportunities for the distributed solar PV (DPV) market arising from recent rate reform efforts, particularly demand charges and fixed charges. For example, it finds that immediate elimination of net energy metering (NEM) in all states could reduce residential DPV deployment 30 percent by 2050, while universal availability of NEM would increase residential deployment by roughtly 40 percent.

U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards: 2016 Annual Status Report

This year’s annual report on Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) highlights these state-level targets are continuing to drive the majority (60 percent) of new renewable energy generation in the U.S. Compliance with these targets remains high (95 percent), while cost premiums in 2014 only resulted in an average 1.3 percent increase in customer bills.

California 2030 Low Carbon Grid Study

This study investigates how California’s electric sector can help achieve deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Modeling results from Phase I of the study reveal that the state can reduce emissions by more than 50 percent below 2012 levels with minimal rate impact, minimal renewables curtailment, and at not cost to reliability. Phase II adds new insight, adding detailed flexibility analyses and examining the effects of drought and different resource mixes on the grid.

A Retrospective Analysis of the Benefits and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

This report retrospectively examines the costs, benefits, and other impacts of all state renewable portfolio standards (RPS). The study finds that meeting RPS compliance reduces greenhouse gas emissions, air pollutant emissions (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter), and water use. These reductions equate to $7.4 billion in benefits. Other economic impacts include jobs growth and price reductions for wholesale electricity and natural gas.

Guidance Principles for Clean Power Plan Modeling

This white paper recommends that modeling done by transmission planners and other stakeholders meet four minimum standards to “conduct effective modeling of the CPP”: (1) stakeholder engagement and transparency, (2) study methodology and interactions between studyies, (3) study inputs, sensitivities, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) tools and techniques. The standards will help avoid studies that produce unfounded reliability and cost findings.

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