New modeling using the Energy Policy Simulator forecasts electric vehicle sales will make up 65 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2050, and could reach up to 75 percent by 2050 in the event of high oil prices or strong technology cost declines. The modeling includes expected market share expansion and penetration levels, the effects of internal factors like battery prices, external factors like oil prices and government policy support, and related national electricity demand.
A U.S. Court of Appeals’ decision to vacate EPA’s rule to reduce hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) could cost at least 3.6 billion metric tons of avoided emissions through 2050 and limits U.S. options to fully implement the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which would reduce cumulative U.S. emissions by 9.5 billion metric tons. This research note report analyzes potential impacts of the court decision, as well as potential alternatives for the U.S. to fully implement the Kigali Amendment.
For the first time last year, a portion of the current vintage allowances offered in one of the California-Quebec cap-and-trade program’s quarterly auctions went unsold. This report provides a quantitative analysis of the supply and demand for carbon allowances in the linked California-Quebec cap-and-trade program to help discern the role that temporary or systemic oversupply may be playing.
This report provides insight into which climate and energy policies can most cost-effectively drive down China’s emissions. The report’s recommendations are based on results from the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), which assesses the combined effects of 35 climate, energy, and environmental policies on a variety of metrics.
This paper synthesizes the reasons for California’s successful climate policy. It considers the relative strengths and weaknesses of different types of policy, concluding that performance standards have led in reducing statewide emissions. Market failures beyond the lack of a price on carbon mean the best policy approach combines the three types of policy: performance standards, economic signals, and research and development (R&D).
The climate problem is enormous: It threatens much of modern civilization, and its principal source, in burning hydrocarbons, is embedded in most of the modern economy. But a handful of insights, grounded in careful math, can clarify the situation, and point out a straightforward path to a reasonable climate future. This paper cuts through the clutter, and points to a reasonable, cost-effective solution to climate change, with clear steps to get there.
This study investigates how California’s electric sector can help achieve deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Modeling results from Phase I of the study reveal that the state can reduce emissions by more than 50 percent below 2012 levels with minimal rate impact, minimal renewables curtailment, and at not cost to reliability. Phase II adds new insight, adding detailed flexibility analyses and examining the effects of drought and different resource mixes on the grid.
This factsheet outlines the financial options for meeting the COP21 agreement to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius or below, finding that global investment in new renewable electric power generation will need to reach $12.1 trillion in the next 25 years. Assuming “business-as-usual” will bring in $6.9 trillion in renewables investment, this leaves a “gap” of $5.2 trillion that must be additionally invested to reach the 2 degree target.
This report retrospectively examines the costs, benefits, and other impacts of all state renewable portfolio standards (RPS). The study finds that meeting RPS compliance reduces greenhouse gas emissions, air pollutant emissions (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter), and water use. These reductions equate to $7.4 billion in benefits. Other economic impacts include jobs growth and price reductions for wholesale electricity and natural gas.
California can accomplish its goal of reducing carbon emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 with proper attention to smart growth. By emphasizing better land use patterns, and supporting better transit and more walkable neighborhoods, carbon reductions of this magnitude are not just technically feasible, but would also save billions of dollars on infrastructure, fuel, and health costs while empowering economic growth and helping counter income inequality.